Rubio says ‘significant’ progress made in talks with Iran
The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has been talking to reporters in New Delhi during a diplomatic visit to India.
“I do think perhaps there is the possibility that in the next few hours the world will get some good news,” Rubio told the media.
He added that “significant” progress had been made in peace talks with Iran but cautioned that this was not “final” progress. Rubio reiterated that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon and that the strait of Hormuz has to be open to global marine traffic without tolls being charged by Tehran for safe passage.
Rubio said:
We have made some progress over the last 48 hours working with our partners in the Gulf region on an outline that could ultimately – if it succeeds – leave us not just with a completely open strait … and with addressing some of the key things that underpin what has been Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions in the past.
Key events
Israeli military orders residents of more Lebanese towns and villages to evacuate ahead of attacks
The Israeli military has ordered residents of more Lebanese towns and villages to evacuate immediately by a “distance of no less than 1000 meters to open areas” in advance of attacks against the locations.
The affected towns and villages are: Kfar Sir, Sir al-Gharbiyyah, al-Zrariyah, Ansar, Mazra’at Kouthariyat, al-Riz and al-Khuraib, according to a social media post by the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesperson, Avichay Adraee, who claimed the attacks are being launched due to Hezbollah violating the US-mediated ceasefire agreement Israel signed with the Lebanese state in mid April.
International law experts say Israel’s warnings are inconsistent and often overly broad and open-ended. Sometimes there is no warning at all before the airstrikes. More than one million people have already been displaced by the renewed Israeli war on Lebanon which started when Hezbollah launched missiles at Israel on 2 March after the US-Israeli bombing of Iran in late February.
Patrick Wintour
News of the potential US-Iran deal triggered dismay among Republican hawks, who had spent years calling for US military action against Iran, and deriding the 2015 deal to limit Iran’s nuclear enrichment in return for sanctions relief negotiated during the Obama administration.
Trump withdrew from that international deal, known as the joint comprehensive plan of action (JCPOA), in 2018.
Mike Pompeo, who served as CIA director and secretary of state during Trump’s first term, denounced the current proposed agreement as too close to what Barack Obama’s negotiators had achieved and a boon to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
“The deal being floated with Iran seems straight out of the Wendy Sherman-Robert Malley-Ben Rhodes playbook: Pay the IRGC to build a WMD program and terrorize the world,” Pompeo wrote on social media, referring to Obama’s chief negotiators.
The alternative, Pompeo added, is “straightforward: Open the damned strait. Deny Iran access to money. Take out enough Iranian capability so it cannot threaten our allies in the region.”
Malley responded: “Not quite the path Wendy, Ben or I would have taken. But if this deal brings an end to an unlawful, unjustifiable war, to the senseless loss of life and destruction and to the cascading global economic fallout, I am quite sure we’d willingly accept it over the alternative.”
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A Bahraini court sentenced nine defendants to life in prison and two others to three years in jail for collaborating with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to carry out what it described as “hostile and terrorist acts” against Bahrain, the state news agency said, Reuters reports.
The defendants were involved in gathering information on sensitive sites and facilitating related financial transfers, the statement said.
Bahrain’s interior ministry said on 9 May that it had arrested 41 people it said were linked to the IRGC. The ministry said security authorities had uncovered a group tied to the IRGC while public prosecutor investigations also involved cases related to sympathy with Iranian attacks.
Sources have told Reuters the proposed framework for peace would unfold in three stages: formally ending the war, resolving the crisis in the strait of Hormuz and launching a 30-day window for negotiations on a broader agreement, which can be extended.
Two Pakistani sources told the news agency that, according to the proposed memorandum, the Strait would be opened immediately after the US lifted its blockade. Marco Rubio said that, if the outline was agreed on, it would mean “completely open straits”, and “without tolls”.
The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency said any changes in navigation through the strait of Hormuz were conditional on implementation of other commitments by the US. It also said some Iranian funds that have been frozen globally as part of sanctions must be released in the first phase of the deal.
One of the Pakistani sources said if the US accepted the memorandum, further talks could take place after the Muslim Eid holiday ends next Friday.
Israel issues first response to potential US-Iran peace deal
According to the NY Times, the Israeli government has issued its first response to the potential US-Iran deal.
In a written statement given to journalists, an unnamed Israeli official said Benjamin Netanyahu had discussed the agreement with Donald Trump last night over the phone.
The NY Times reports that the official described the deal as an initial understanding about the reopening of the strait of Hormuz that would lead to further talks on a final agreement.
The official said that Netanyahu made it clear to Trump that Israel would not be constrained in responding to “all threats”, including across the border in Lebanon.
Netanyahu is said to actually want to resume the war on Iran in order to degrade the country’s military capabilities further and continue attacks on its infrastructure.
Donald Trump, whose poll ratings have suffered in the US over the deeply unpopular war, seems more interested in reaching an agreement with Tehran, although he has repeatedly said he will resume attacks if one cannot be reached and gives often contradictory statements.
Iran has said an end to Israel’s war on Lebanon has to form part of any agreement with Washington.
The Times of Israel is reporting that Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will convene a “limited” security cabinet meeting this evening to discuss the US-Iran deal.
As reported, the draft agreement could include ending the war on all fronts, including Israel’s assault on Lebanon. Netanyahu, who is pushing for the complete disarmament of Hezbollah, is unlikely to be happy with that provision if it does end up being included in the deal.
Israel has continued striking Lebanon regularly, both south and north of the Litani River in south Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire coming into effect last month.
Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group, has fired rockets and drones into northern Israel and against Israeli troops in southern Lebanon.
According to the Lebanese health ministry, at least 3,111 people have been killed in Israeli attacks since the latest round of fighting between Hezbollah and Israel started on 2 March.
Israel’s deadly air assault – and ground invasion – were in response to Hezbollah firing rockets at northern Israel after the US and Israel killed the former Iranian supreme leader in Tehran on 28 February.
Here is the video of US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, hailing the “significant progress” he said had been made on Iran talks – before explaining why he is only being cautiously optimistic (see post at 08.49 for more details):
Iran’s Tasnim news agency is reporting that Tehran has made no commitments in the draft agreement to hand over any of its nuclear material.
It said all issues “regarding the nuclear matter” have been postponed, adding that the current draft is limited to “ending the war”.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has welcomed signs of progress in US-Iran peace talks.
“I welcome the progress towards an agreement between the US and Iran. We need a deal that truly de-escalates the conflict, reopens the strait of Hormuz and guarantees toll-free full freedom of navigation. Iran must not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon,” von der Leyen wrote on X.
“It must also end its destabilising actions in the region, directly or through proxies, as well as its unjustified and repeated attacks on its neighbours,” she added.
A senior Iranian source has told the Reuters news agency that if Iran’s supreme national security council approved the memorandum, it would be sent to supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei for final approval.
No verified recording or visual sighting of Khamenei has been broadcast since he was appointed supreme leader in early March. Reports have suggested that he was severely injured in the US-Israeli bombing that killed his 86-year-old father and predecessor on 28 February.
What could be in the potential US-Iran deal?
As we have been reporting, Donald Trump has said that a Memorandum of Understanding in talks to end the US-Israel war on Iran “has been largely negotiated”.
Official details of the potential deal are scant and it remains possible that some aspects of the memo could change. But here is what we know so far about the potential agreement that could bring an end to the war.
– The deal would involve a 60-day ceasefire extension during which the strait of Hormuz would be reopened, Iran could freely sell oil, and talks on limiting Iran’s nuclear program would be held, a US official told Axios.
– Iran would also agree to clear the mines it deployed in the strait and not impose any tolls on ships – and in exchange, the US would lift its blockade on Iranian ports that has been in effect since 13 April, Axios reported.
– The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said on Sunday that the deal could achieve “a completely open” strait of Hormuz “without tolls” if successful.
– But Iranian media reported that the strait of Hormuz would remain under Iranian control.
– The deal would reportedly unfreeze some Iranian assets that are being held in banks outside Iran.
– Hostilities would reportedly be halted on all fronts, including Israel and Lebanon.
– A senior Iranian source told Reuters on Sunday that Tehran had not agreed to hand over its highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile.
– The source said Iran’s nuclear issue was not part of the preliminary agreement with the US.
– The statement came after the NY Times, citing two US officials, reported that Tehran had apparently expressed a willingness to give up its stockpile.
– Even if Tehran does agree to give up some of its HEU stockpile, there has been no mention of how this would happen in practice.
– There has also been little mention of Iran’s ballistic missile programme or the curbing of its support for its regional allies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen.
The UK’s prime minister, Keir Starmer, said he supports the nearing of an agreement between the US and Iran toward ending the war and reopening the strait of Hormuz. In a post on X, Starmer wrote:
I welcome the progress towards an agreement between the US and Iran. We need to see an agreement that brings the conflict to an end and reopens the strait of Hormuz, with unconditional and unrestricted freedom of navigation.
It’s vital that Iran must never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. My government will continue to do everything we can to protect British people from the impact of this conflict. We will work with our international partners to seize this moment and achieve a long-term diplomatic settlement.
Rubio said that the path to a durable agreement would require “full Iranian acceptance and then compliance”, and “future work” would have to be done to finalise “the details”.
“When you are talking about a nuclear programme, as an example, these are highly technical matters and ones that would probably need to be addressed over some period of time,” the secretary of state said.
Responding to the criticism of the emerging deal from senior Republicans (see post at 08.28), Rubio said Donald Trump’s commitment to Iran never possessing a nuclear weapon is unwavering.
“And the idea that somehow this president, given everything he has already proven he is willing to do, is going to somehow agree to a deal that ultimately winds up putting Iran in a stronger position when it comes to nuclear ambitions is absurd,” he said.
“That is just not going to happen. But our preference is to address this through a diplomatic means and that is what we are endeavouring to do here.”
Rubio says ‘significant’ progress made in talks with Iran
The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has been talking to reporters in New Delhi during a diplomatic visit to India.
“I do think perhaps there is the possibility that in the next few hours the world will get some good news,” Rubio told the media.
He added that “significant” progress had been made in peace talks with Iran but cautioned that this was not “final” progress. Rubio reiterated that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon and that the strait of Hormuz has to be open to global marine traffic without tolls being charged by Tehran for safe passage.
Rubio said:
We have made some progress over the last 48 hours working with our partners in the Gulf region on an outline that could ultimately – if it succeeds – leave us not just with a completely open strait … and with addressing some of the key things that underpin what has been Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions in the past.
While there is little doubt that waves of US and Israeli airstrikes heavily degraded Iran’s military capabilities, many of Donald Trump’s core objectives remain unfulfilled and he is now essentially trying to get back to the status quo of the strait of Hormuz being freely open to international vessels.
A stockpile of highly enriched uranium is also still believed to remain buried following US and Israeli airstrikes last June and Iran reportedly retains much of its pre-war missile stockpile despite US-Israeli attacks.
