Could Ken Paxton finally put Texas in play for Democrats?

After three decades of Democratic candidates failing to win statewide in Texas, Democrats and Republicans alike were raising alarm bells Wednesday that this could be the year.

The morning after Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP runoff, political analysts predicted Paxton's history of scandal would be a problem that could potentially scuttle his chances in November. Two of the more prominent election forecasters, the Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, both changed their outlook on the race from "likely Republican" to "leans Republican." 

IN-DEPTH: Does U.S. Sen. John Cornyn's defeat mark an end to Bush-era Texas politics?

"Paxton has a litany of ethical lapses for Democrats to exploit — from allegations of bribery and misuse of his office to marital infidelity," read analysis by the Cook Political Report. "Given the national environment, this is a race that certainly may have become competitive even if Cornyn had won, but Paxton’s flaws warrant an immediate move to the Lean column."

It is not exactly a resounding vote of confidence in Democratic state Rep. James Talarico's chances to do what Democrats like Beto O'Rourke and Wendy Davis could not. But it nonetheless marks a new openness to the idea that the long Republican-dominated state could potentially be in play. 

At issue is not only Paxton himself — who has weathered criminal indictments, impeachment and personal scandal — but questions around the strength of President Donald Trump's brand following his decision to invade Iran, driving up global oil prices at a time many Americans were already struggling with persistent inflation. A recent poll by Quinnipiac University gave the president an approval rating of 33%, with just 73% of Republicans supporting the president's performance.

Some of the state's top Republicans were sounding the alarm, even as they expressed support for Paxton.

"I got a message to Republicans in Texas and nationwide: do not take this general election for granted," U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz said on his podcast Wednesday morning. "It is easy to say it's Texas, it's red, we're going to win. And I believe we are going to win. But I also think the Democrat nominee James Talarico, is a dangerous candidate."

Gov. Greg Abbott, who is also on the ballot in November, sent out a fundraising plea Wednesday morning saying "this year is unlike any other, and we MUST unite." 

"I can tell you honestly that I haven't seen an election cycle that looked quite like this one," his message to supporters read. "To say the Democrats are energized would be an understatement."

The hope among Democrats is Talarico will not only turn out a Democratic base already angry with Trump's leadership but also win over independents and possibly even some Republican voters. Talarico is already making appeals to Cornyn supporters, thanking the GOP senator in a social media post Tuesday night for "his years representing our state."

"We don’t agree on everything, but we both still believe in public service," he wrote. "To Senator Cornyn’s supporters: you have a place in our campaign."

It's a tough path. Democrats have long argued their candidates would woo Republicans turned off by Trump-era politics to no avail. But Matt Angle, founder of the pro-Democrat Lone Star Project, said if Talarico could win over "fair-minded" Cornyn supporters not willing to vote for Paxton he could have a shot.

"Maybe they’ll opt for a Democrat for the first time or maybe they’ll stay home. Either way is good for us," he said. "It's not hard to see a Democrat finish at 45% but can you get up above 50%. That's the challenge."

Texas has been a solidly red state for decades, with Trump winning 56% of the vote in 2024 compared to 49% nationally.

READ MORE: Ken Paxton wins Texas US Senate primary, ending John Cornyn’s two decades in office

Recent polls on the race for Texas' senate seat, put Paxton and Talarico in a near dead heat — with Cornyn only doing slightly better. But with more than five months to go until election day, even pollsters readily admit their surveys are more a snapshot in time rather than a prediction.

"Polls today cannot replicate where peoples' preferences are after Democrats spend $150 million reminding Texas voters of Ken Paxton's issues," said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University. "This a Democratic consultant's dream. And Republicans are going to reciprocate with $100 to $150 million telling us all about all the positions James Talarico holds that are well to the left of the average Texas voter."

Speaking at his victory party in Dallas Tuesday, Paxton took a brief stab at appealing to not only Cornyn's voters but the independents he would likely need to win in November, declaring his campaign as, "about more than red versus blue."

But he quickly turned up the partisan heat, calling his opponent, "Tala-freak-o" and other names after predicting "Texas will be the radical left's number one priority."

In past elections, firing up the GOP base with such partisan baiting went a long way, figuring the number of voters willing to go for a Democrat was small enough not to warrant trying to win them over.

But in this election, Trump's lack of popularity, particularly with Latino voters, has the potential to make winning a general election much more difficult for Paxton, pollster G. Elliot Morris wrote earlier this year.

He cited the January 31 special election for a state senate district outside Fort Worth, which Democrat Taylor Rehmet won after Trump carried the district by 17 points in 2024. Morris wrote Rehmet was able to pull off an upset largely by swinging Latino voters. 

"VoteHub estimated Rehmet won roughly 79% of the Hispanic vote in the district, compared to the ~54% Democrats captured among Texas Hispanics in 2024," Morris wrote.

The optimism among Talarico supporters was apparent Wednesday morning. A poll released by the Talarico-aligned Lone Star Rising PAC Tuesday gave their candidate a seven-point lead over Paxton. Garry Jones, director of the PAC, called the race "the strongest opening for Democrats in a Texas statewide race in nearly three decades."

That prediction was far out of line with other polls. But at the same time, there was a sense among national Republicans they were in for a long fight.

Former Trump advisor Steve Bannon told Politico that while he thought Paxton would ultimately win the senate seat, it was "going to be a total grind.”