Raid on party headquarters dials up pressure on Spain’s Sánchez – POLITICO

But Spain’s constitutional framework, and the complex alliances binding the country’s political parties, make Sánchez’s imminent exit unlikely.

Spanish prime ministers can only be forced from power through no confidence motions in which they are replaced by an alternate candidate backed by a majority of lawmakers in the national parliament. The most likely figure to replace Sánchez would be Feijóo, but his bid would require the support of both the far-right Vox party and regionalist groups like the Basque Nationalist Party or the Catalan separatist Junts party.

Complex dynamics

Pablo Simón, a political scientist at Madrid’s Carlos III University, said that ideologically opposed parties are unlikely to forge an alliance to oust Sánchez anytime soon. 

“There are a lot of factors in play: Basque nationalists have a coalition government with the Socialists in the Basque Country, for example” he noted. “If they push Sánchez out of power in Madrid, his party could hand the regional government to the left-wing Bildu group instead.”

Similarly, the Junts party is unlikely to make moves that would risk separatist leader Carles Puigdemont’s return from self-imposed exile. Sánchez passed a controversial amnesty of Catalan independence leaders in exchange for the party’s support for his government in 2023, but Spanish judges have so far blocked its application. 

“In the end, no one is going to force him out, so it’s up to Sánchez to decide if he wants to call early elections,” Simón said. “And he knows that if he takes that route, he’s likely to lose them, and given the ongoing judicial proceedings, why would he do that?”

The analyst predicted Sánchez would attempt to keep a low profile until parliament goes into recess for the summer, with the hope that tensions will die down once Spaniards head off for vacation. 

“Ultimately, he’s more protected in the prime minister’s palace than he is as a member of the opposition, so he’ll do everything to remain in power,” Simón added. “Of course, if the current furore doesn’t abate by fall, he may have to reassess his course of action.”