The unavoidable clash between President Donald Trump’s self-serving and chaotic governance and Republicans’ political survivalism has arrived.
Trump has largely disregarded his plunging approval ratings and polls that increasingly show Democrats winning the 2026 midterms by as much as double digits. He’s pressed forward with politically dubious initiatives like the Iran war, his coveted ballroom and now a $1.776 billion “anti-weaponization” fund that could, by the administration’s own admission, reward people who assaulted police.
This week, he also endorsed Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton over an incumbent senator, despite fears that the baggage-laden Paxton could cost the GOP a key seat in November — and even, however unlikely, the Senate majority.
Apparently even the ever-servile congressional Republicans have a breaking point.
After pushing back on the new “anti-weaponization” fund with unusual gusto this week — “stupid on stilts,” “unexplainable” and “utterly stupid, morally wrong” were some of the choice words — Senate Republicans left town Thursday with Trump’s immigration enforcement bill in limbo over the issue.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has subtly acknowledged a real rift in the relationship between the White House and the congressional GOP. Trump on Thursday didn’t dispute the premise that he might be losing control of the Senate GOP, and on Friday he issued a pair of defensive posts about the fund and his status with Senate Republicans.
But with less than six months before the midterm elections, where does the party go from here?
The safest bet in Washington in recent years has been that Republicans will eventually cave to Trump, at least in part. A cynic might look at the Senate GOP leaving town to avoid tough votes and just hope the situation blows over.
Maybe lawmakers ultimately work around the edges to restrict the “anti-weaponization” fund — perhaps by prohibiting the compensation of January 6, 2021, rioters who assaulted police — in ways that make it more politically palatable.
But the White House is projecting that it wouldn’t accept such changes. And even if the optics of the fund can be addressed in a way that allays GOP fears about a political albatross, it leaves unresolved Trump’s ballroom.
The Senate parliamentarian has said the president’s request for hundreds of millions in funding for the ballroom’s security can’t be part of the immigration bill that would require only a simple majority in the Senate. That means it’s not clear how the funding could pass even if Republicans supported it.
And while GOP lawmakers tend to be loyal to Trump, they’ve never confronted a situation like this.
He’s more unpopular than ever, but he’s also more unchained than ever. That’s a recipe for five-plus months of pre-election headaches that the GOP seems to have belatedly concluded it needs to try to head off.
And Trump is increasingly running into a math problem — partially of his own making.
While Republicans have 53 votes in the Senate, the president already has to deal with a pair of moderates in Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine, the latter of whom is in a tough reelection race in a blue state. There are also the politically untethered retirees like Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky (who are responsible for two of the strongest quotes about the fund above).
Trump has also likely only created more potential antagonists in recent days.
His ouster of Sen. Bill Cassidy in Saturday’s primary means a senator who once voted to convict him at his impeachment trial is now freed of reelection concerns. And the Louisiana Republican seems to be taking full advantage of that latitude.
We could see a somewhat similar situation in just a few days if Sen. John Cornyn of Texas loses his primary to the Trump-backed Paxton.
The president seemed to recognize his math problem in a Friday morning post about Tillis. “Now he can have all the fun he wants for a few months, with some of his RINO friends, screwing the Republican Party,” he wrote.
That doesn’t mean Republicans will stop everything Trump wants. But to the extent GOP leaders feel the need to halt politically unpalatable Trump initiatives, there are now a host of lawmakers who can each take one for the team by voting against the president.
And perhaps even more significant than how Cassidy and Cornyn might vote is the message Trump sent with his targeting of them. A president endorsing against an incumbent is basically unheard-of. But Trump is showing he cares a lot more about getting revenge and helping himself than helping Republicans winning the midterms.
And to the extent this tension between Trump and the GOP conference lingers, it could create some real legislative problems in the weeks and months to come.
In addition to Trump having demanded the immigration package by June 1 and the ballroom funding, Congress is coming up on a June 12 deadline for the reauthorization of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), a key but controversial spying authority.
There could also be nominees for the Senate to consider. There is still no confirmed attorney general, for example, and it’s possible Trump could leave Todd Blanche in the job on an acting basis. But the “anti-weaponization” fund makes it less likely that these Republicans would sign off on Blanche or another nominee that would toe Trump’s line on such issues.
And then there’s the big one: What if there were a Supreme Court vacancy? There’s no indication thus far that Justices Samuel Alito or Clarence Thomas will retire, but politically speaking, this summer would make a lot of sense for them to do so.
There’s virtually no way a 53-seat GOP Senate majority would ever fail to replace them. But fractures with the Senate could impair Trump’s ability to force through a more extreme nominee who is aligned with his view that justices he appoints should do his bidding.
Perhaps Republicans get to a point where everyone can move past this volatile situation, at least for now.
But the way Trump is handling himself suggests it’s only a matter of time before he endangers Republicans’ political futures again. He simply doesn’t seem to care about them.
And there is nothing more motivating for lawmakers than the fear of losing their job.