After Tuesday’s election results, the balance of power on the Deschutes County Commission is undergoing what some observers describe as a seismic shift to the left. Democrats and left-leaning candidates now have the potential to control the board for the first time in recent memory.
Political scientist and Bend City Councilor Ariel Mendez said the results appear to reflect both changing voter registration trends in Deschutes County and broader demographic and political changes in Central Oregon.
“Democrats now outnumber Republicans by a few thousand registered voters (in the county),” Mendez said, noting that non-affiliated voters remain the county’s largest voting bloc but often reflect the broader partisan leanings of registered voters.
The shift marks a significant political reversal from previous decades. In 2006, Oregon’s 2nd Congressional District — which then included Deschutes County and much of Eastern Oregon — had 36,311 registered Republicans compared to 27,354 registered Democrats, reflecting the region’s tradition conservative political makeup.
By 2025, voter registration numbers in Oregon’s 2nd and 5th congressional districts — which together encompass much of the same Central Oregon territory — showed 49,386 registered Democrats compared to 45,388 Republicans, illustrating the region’s gradual political evolution over the last two decades.
Evidence of the county’s political shift is not limited to the commission. Similar changes from more conservative leadership toward more progressive or left-leaning majorities have also emerged in recent years on the Bend-La Pine Schools board and Bend City Council.
For years, the three-member county commission has been dominated by Republicans, with Commissioners Tony DeBone and Patti Adair holding a 2-1 majority over Democratic Party-endorsed Phil Chang.
Chang has spent several years as the lone Democratic voice on the board, frequently finding himself on the losing end votes on issues ranging from land use and housing to water policy and climate-related planning. But Tuesday’s results suggest the political tide on the commission may now be turning in his favor.
That structure is now changing in major ways: voters approved expanding the commission from three members to five, well as making the seats nonpartisan, which allowed all voters to cast ballots in May. Democratic-backed candidates then performed strongly across several races.
Democrat-backed challenger Jamie Collins defeated longtime incumbent DeBone in the Position 1 race, while Rick Russell won the race for newly created Position 4, according to unofficial election results. Combined with Chang’s existing seat, the results mean Democrats or Democratic-aligned commissioners will hold at least three seats on the new five-member board regardless of what happens in the remaining races that went on to November runoffs.
Chang said the results reflect voters seeking commissioners who are more pragmatic and responsive to community concerns.
“I think that we are getting commissioners who are a better reflection of our community and more in touch with the concerns and the policy solutions that our constituents are putting forward,” Chang said.
Chang emphasized that county commissioner races are now officially nonpartisan, a measure he supported. While several winning and leading candidates received backing from the Deschutes County Democratic Party, Chang said he views the shift less through a partisan lens and more as a rejection of ideological gridlock.
“My hope is that we can return to a time where, regardless of party affiliation, we have pragmatic, reasonable problem solvers who listen to everyone in our community,” Chang said.
Mendez said broader national political trends may also be shaping local elections, even though county commissioner races are officially nonpartisan.
“This is a tough time to be a Republican in a state like Oregon,” Mendez said, pointing to moments during local debates where candidates appeared eager to distance themselves from national Republican politics and the MAGA movement.
Mendez said the election results also suggest voters may be signaling support for a different approach to key county issues, particularly water usage, land use and data center development.
“There was a pretty stark difference there,” Mendez said of the candidates’ positions. “This seems like evidence of the voters expressing a preference for a different approach.”
Judy Stiegler, a longtime local political observer and instructor at both Oregon State University-Cascades and Central Oregon Community College, said she believes Deschutes County remains politically mixed, even as Democratic influence has grown.
“I think it’s still pretty much a purple county,” Stiegler said. “Neither side can take anything for granted.”
Stiegler said population growth, rising housing costs and changing community priorities have all contributed to the county’s evolving political landscape.
“The county overall has become more expensive to live here,” she said. “I think affordability is a major issue.”
She also said local voters increasingly appear focused on issues such as wildfire response, land use, natural resources and housing affordability, areas where Democratic candidates may have connected more effectively with voters this cycle.
“The messaging maybe has not been as strong” from Republicans on some local issues, Stiegler said. “Democrats have focused in those areas.”
Chang pointed to housing and water policy as areas where he believes the board could move in a different direction with a new majority. He criticized what he described as ideological resistance to expanding urban growth boundaries and addressing groundwater depletion.
“If we are serious about producing the housing that our community needs, our number one job at the county should be figuring out how to help our cities expand their urban growth boundaries and produce housing within our cities,” Chang said.
Not everyone sees the county’s political trajectory as a wholesale shift from red to blue.
Keith Rockow, chair of the Deschutes County Republican Party, described the county as more politically mixed than election headlines may suggest.
“I don’t think we’re blue or red as much as we are purple,” Rockow said, also pointing to the county’s large bloc of non-affiliated voters.
Rockow acknowledged disappointment with the May election results but said Republicans intend to focus on policy outcomes rather than obstruction.
“We’re not here to make their job difficult,” Rockow said. “We’re here to cooperate with them and work with them to get the results for the county.”
He said issues such as homelessness, mental health services, water resources and the county’s long-term landfill needs will ultimately shape how voters judge the new majority.
Rockow also suggested that expanded participation by non-affiliated voters in the county’s nonpartisan primary system may have influenced the election results. He said local Republicans plan to reassess campaign strategies ahead of the November runoffs, with an increased emphasis on direct voter contact and grassroots organizing.
The remaining races could further solidify the board’s leftward shift.
In Position 3, no candidate secured more than 50% of the vote, sending Lauren Connally and Amy Sabbadini to a November runoff for the seat currently held by outgoing Republican Adair. Connally is not a registered Republican, but was supported by the local party. Sabbadini was endorsed by the Deschutes County Democratic Party and is likely to pick up votes in November from supporters of third place finisher and fellow Democrat Amanda Page.
Another new seat, Position 5, is also headed to a November runoff. Democratic Party-supported Morgan Schmidt led the field with 44.6% of the vote, followed by Republican Rob Imhoff at 38.4%. The winner will serve a two-year term beginning in January.
Mendez said the Democratic wins point to an enthusiasm gap between the two local parties. He said Democrats dramatically expanded participation in their endorsement process this cycle by involving hundreds of precinct committee people, while Republicans relied on a smaller executive committee structure.
Whether than lasts, remains to be seen.
“One thing people are wondering is whether that was a flash in the pan, or are we going to see that kind of enthusiasm carry forward into November?” Mendez said.
Chang said he is optimistic about becoming part of what he called a new governing majority on the board after years in the minority.
“I am excited,” Chang said. “I have an opportunity to be part of a governing majority coalition on the board.”
