Texas runoffs reset the races as smaller turnout clouds key battles

In Texas politics, primary results don’t carry into the second round. Candidates have to start over, making runoffs a new game.

The big variable for Republicans and Democrats is the sharply lower voter turnout expected from the March 3 primary. That makes many races harder to predict.

Second-place finishers can catch momentum, while candidates often face tighter resources and less time to campaign.

The uncertainty has created drama in many of Tuesday’s contests.

Here are three things to watch:

There’s a narrative that President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Ken Paxton for Senate effectively ended the brutal Republican runoff.

Republican incumbent John Cornyn says not so fast.

Cornyn’s challenge has always been to cobble together a coalition of independents, traditional conservatives and hard-line voters repulsed by Paxton’s scandals. 

Though Trump’s decision may make it harder for Cornyn to attract MAGA voters, his core mission remains the same.

Paxton is looking to lock down the MAGA base, but he remains vulnerable if regular conservatives and establishment Republicans turn out heavily for Cornyn, a fixture in Texas politics for more than four decades.

Former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred finished 10 percentage points ahead of U.S. Rep. Julie Johnson in the March 3 Democratic primary for Congressional District 33, but failed to avoid a runoff.

Now the race changes. Allred’s name recognition, built through three terms in Congress and his 2024 Senate run against Ted Cruz, likely helped with casual voters drawn to the high-profile Senate primary between Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico.

But runoff turnout is expected to be far smaller, creating a volatile electorate for both sides.

The runoff could hinge on coalition politics. Strong Black turnout would help Allred. Latino voters could prove decisive. So could whether Allred holds his usual strong support with white Democrats and how much an energized LGBTQ vote lifts Johnson.

The contest also is a proxy fight between Crockett, backing Allred, and Talarico, supporting Johnson.

The statewide Republican runoffs have a common theme, with longtime conservatives facing MAGA-style candidates.

It’s the dynamic in the GOP fight for attorney general, where U.S. Rep. Chip Roy of Austin is trying to rebound against state Sen. Mayes Middleton of Galveston, who calls himself “MAGA Mayes.”

Middleton, who is backed by Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, has accused Roy of being disloyal to Trump. 

Roy, who has the support of Cruz, said he has a strong relationship with the president.

A similar divide is shaping the Railroad Commission runoff between incumbent Jim Wright and challenger Bo French. 

Wright has lined up establishment Republican and energy business support, including from Gov. Greg Abbott and other top elected Republicans, while French has become a favorite of hard-line conservative activists.

Wright has targeted French over his inflammatory comments and social media posts, some of which French says were taken out of context.